The final week of the NBA season is very different to handicap than the first 76 games or so. There are some teams that have clinched their seeds and will be resting players. The Pistons have talked about giving Rasheed Wallace some time off to rest an ailing foot. There are other teams completely out of it that have basically given up on the season.

Still others are fighting for playoff positioning or their playoff lives, which others will be making adjustments even now in preparation for the postseason. That can influence how a handicapper analyzes their final few games, with the side and even the total. Cleveland, for instance, is in the playoffs but they are talking about making adjustments. Late-game struggles have been magnified in the past 12 games, in which the Cavs have gone just 6-6.

But the idea of having LeBron James try to create when he’s 20 to 25 feet from the basket has had mixed success in pressure situations for most of the season. For example, he is 0-of-11 on 3-point shots to tie or win games. Although James’ ability to run a high pick-and-roll or to drive for a basket or a kick-out to an open teammate had worked in the past, teams have been taking it away from him with various double-team looks and tempting him to shoot low-percentage jumpers.

In the playoffs, when many games are reduced to half-court slugfests, establishing both working options and confidence in those situations is vital. Cavs coach Mike Brown said this week that his own players team needs to make adjustments, and he thinks the rest of the players on the floor need to get more involved.

A team fighting for its playoff life, and losing the battle of late, is the LA Clippers. After covering 9 of 11 games, the Clippers are 0-3 SU/ATS the last 3 games, apparently running out of steam. The Clippers said they must win their final five games to be assured of a playoff berth.

The Clippers had a three-game winning streak after defeating the Lakers on April 4, but the Golden State Warriors are eighth, half a game ahead of the Clippers. “It’s going to take winning out,” said Elton Brand. Brand is doing is part, with 37 points, 10 rebounds the last game. But injuries have sapped the strength of this group and time is running out.

If the Warriors finish tied with L.A., the only way they win the tiebreaker is if they beat Sacramento on Friday and the Clippers lose all three remaining division games: at the Lakers on Thursday, home against Sacramento on Sunday, and at Phoenix on Tuesday. That would give them both 6-10 records in the Pacific Division and push the tiebreaker to their conference marks, in which the Warriors would have the edge.

Lakers coach Phil Jackson was non-committal when asked if the Lakers would employ the zone defense more often, a tactic that slowed Denver in the fourth quarter of the Nuggets’ 115-111 victory Monday. “It was successful against that team and on that situation, but it wasn’t a win,” Jackson said. “I think it’s a bail-out situation, but we had to be bailed out. We couldn’t stop the penetration.” The Lakers are 9-5 over the total the last 14 games with a shaky defense.

Making changes late in the regular season may seem like desperation, but its the job of the coaches to do whatever they think is necessary to help their team. And its the job of handicappers to keep up with these changes to see if it might help uncover an ATS edge!

Lenny Del Genio is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Lenny_Del_Genio.htm